How to get Positive Mathematical Expectation in the Casino?

How to get Positive Mathematical Expectation in the Casino?

Let’s evaluate the probability of winning in online casino slots using math and statistics. In my opinion; Online casinos currently are at the peak of its popularity and many players are looking for additional information on how to increase their chances of reaching a big win. In fact, the bonus hunting strategy is based on this model. You can learn more by clicking the link below:

Bonus Hunting in Online Casinos

Players have a real opportunity to have a positive mathematical expectation of winning in the online casino. The player can take this winnings absolutely legally without violating any of the casino rules. You have to use bonuses for this. Obviously, the use of the current strategy is one of the reasons why high wagering requirements on all bonus coins and such points arise in casino terms and conditions. “If a player using bonuses gets an advantage, we will exclude him from the bonus from his promotions”.

  • How can I get Positive Mathematical Expectation to Win?

In short; We will only play video slots and slot machines with a return percentage from 97%. Meanwhile, we will play if there is a jackpot in the account with wagering conditions below 40x. If the player is lucky with the use of this strategy, there is still a possibility of making a big profit. But statistically, the player gets the positive mathematical expectation of winnings from online casino games.

Currently, some online casinos have removed the most profitable slot machines for which you can meet the bonus wagering requirements. Some casinos go further and add clauses to their terms of use that allow them to exclude players who earn with their help from promotions.

Statistical Data

The game rules of each casino have a negative mathematical expectation. Even if luck smiles at the players and wins a huge amount, increasing the number of games (spreads, spins) aligns the statistics with the medians and as a result creates an inevitable loss. So is there any reason to play?

35x Bet Calculation

Since you have a 100 € bonus money, you have to bet 3500 €. Which slot machine will we have zero mathematical expectations? The slot machine where we lost 100 € out of 3500 €. This value corresponds to a value equal to 2.86% (100/3500 = 2.86 + 97.14 = 0). Therefore, all games bonus with a return rate of over 97.14% of the bets made gives a positive mathematical expectation with the bet for 35 times.

List of games with plus and near-zero 35x wagering requirements:

Name RTP Bonus betting points (max 10) Chance of getting a bonus Budget allocation principal / bonus Flexibility (up to 20) Win in the casino with a total bet of 100 €
Mega Joker 99% 2.4 / 100% 7.98 1.75
Jackpot 6000 98.86% 2.7 / 100% 5.24 1.72
Blood Suckers 98% 6.4 0.52% / 2.1% 52% / 12.1% / 13% / 20.1% 4.16 0.86
Kings of Chicago 97.8%  3.5 0.94% 70% / 17.6% / 10.3% 8.64 0.66
Devils Delight 97.6% 5.63 8.31% 92% / 8% 7.92     0.46
Sim Salabim 97.5% 6.61 1.87% 68,8% / 15,9% / 12,8% 4.1 0.36  

The higher RTP slot, the higher statistical percentage of win will be on the player’s side. For example, for every € 100 (RTP 99%) in the Mega Joker slot, the win will be 1.72 €. If it is the Blood Suckers slot (RTP 98%), the win will be 0.86 €.

Our mathematical advantage over the casino will only work during an active bonus with 35x the bet. As soon as we get the bonus money back, our expectation will turn negative again.

The wagering conditions will change for 40x wagering

Now let’s analyse the mathematical expectation of winning with a 40x bet. Let’s say 200 € in our account and half of it is bonus money. We spent 100 € of our own money and we have to deposit 4000 € to get money from the casino. In this case, we are interested in games that return more than 97.5% of all bets made by all players. In this case, the game list will be as follows.

Game Winning percentage of bets Win of every € 100 bet
Mega Joker 99% 1.5
Jackpot 6000 98.86% 1.36
Blood Suckers 98% 0.5
Kings of Chicago 97.8% 0.3
  • Mega Joker with 99% RTP. The player will earn 1.5 € for each € 100 (statistical).
  • The rate of the Jackpot 6000 video slots is 98.86%. The winnings at the casino are 1.36 € for every € 100 wagered (97.5 deducted from 98.86).
  • The rate of Blood Suckers slot machine is 98%. If it is won, every 100 € the gain will be 0.5 €.
  • The rate of the Kings of Chicago video slot is 97.8%. The win is 0,3 € per 100 €.
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